When estimating sits with one person: how to capture it
For owners, managing directors and CFOs of manufacturing companies where quoting depends on one person.
Short answer
When estimating sits with one person, you don't write down everything that person knows. You capture the costing rules: how a request turns into an amount of material, a number of hours and a price. You do it in four steps next to the daily work: two interviews based on recent quotes, putting the rules in a register, letting a second person estimate with only those rules, and embedding the rules in your costing layout or ERP. You are done when a second person lands within 10% of the estimator on five quotes in a row.
In short
- The biggest risk is not the estimator leaving, but nobody being able to trace where a price comes from.
- Capture costing rules, not a complete way of working. Think dozens, not hundreds.
- Test it with a shadow estimate: a second person calculates with only the rules.
- You need no AI or new software for this. You do need a few hours a week, for a few weeks.
1. Why this is a risk
In many manufacturing companies one person makes the quotes. Often for years, with a home-made spreadsheet and a lot of experience. That works, until that person falls ill, retires, or can no longer keep up.
The biggest risk is not the departure itself. It is that nobody can trace where a price comes from. Then you can't explain why an order lost money, you can't train anyone, and in an acquisition or sale you have no answer to a question every buyer asks. The Dutch Chamber of Commerce (KVK) advises owners who want to sell to make the company less dependent on themselves for exactly this reason.
Sound familiar?
Quotes pile up when the estimator is on holiday. Nobody else knows which hourly rate is used. Afterwards nobody can say whether an order earned what was estimated.
2. What to capture, and what not
You don't need to write down everything someone learned in twenty years. That is impossible anyway. What matters are the costing rules: the fixed steps that turn a request into a price.
Capture
- Which cost lines a quote has: material, operations, outsourced work, mark-ups
- Key figures, such as welding hours per tonne or loss on plate
- Which hourly rates apply and how they are built up
- When you deviate, for example for rush orders or a new design
- Where prices come from: last purchase, supplier quote, fixed price
Not needed
- Every quote ever made
- A complete handbook
- Exceptions that happen once a year
- A new software package before the rules exist
Write a costing rule so that a new colleague can apply it. Include the figure, where it comes from (experience, post-calculation or supplier) and when it was last checked.
| Product type | Cost line | Rule in plain words | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frames and structures | Welding | Welding hours per tonne, more with many seams | 45 hours per tonne | Experience |
| Frames and structures | Material | Saw and cutting loss on top of the net weight | 8% | Post-calculation |
| Hydraulic drive | Hydraulics | Assembly hours per function (cylinder or motor with piping) | 6 hours | Experience |
| All products | Engineering | New design, minimum | 40 hours | Experience |
The figures show the format. Do not use them as a standard: every company has its own figures.
3. Capture it in four steps
- 1
Two one-hour interviews
Take three recent quotes: an ordinary one, a difficult one and one that disappointed afterwards. Let the estimator explain how they reached the price. Ask the questions from the template and write the answers down in their words.
- 2
The rules in a register
Put every rule you hear on its own row: product type, cost line, the rule in plain words, the figure, the source and the owner. Let the estimator review and complete the register.
- 3
A shadow estimate
Let a second person estimate five quotes the estimator also makes, using only the register. Compare per cost line. Where the difference is more than 10%, a rule is missing or unclear. Add it and repeat.
- 4
Embed it in the layout or ERP
Put the rules in your costing layout or the estimating module of your ERP, so they are used for every quote. Compare them with the post-calculation every quarter.
Done when
A second person lands within 10% of the estimator on five quotes in a row, without asking.
Try it below. Per cost line, enter the estimator's result and the second person's result.
Shadow estimate
| Cost line | Estimator | Second person | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.3% | |||
| +3.2% | |||
| -17.2% | |||
| -3.8% | |||
| -2.1% | |||
| +25.0% | |||
| Total | €18,097 | €17,380 | -4.0% |
4. How much time it takes
| Step | Estimator time | Second person time | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interviews | 2 hours | 2 hours (taking notes) | Week 1 |
| Register | 1 hour reviewing | 4 to 6 hours | Weeks 1 and 2 |
| Shadow estimate | 1 hour per comparison | 2 to 4 hours per quote | Weeks 2 to 5 |
| Embedding | 2 hours | 4 hours | Week 6 |
An estimate for a company with one estimator and a few product types. More product types means more rules.
5. Where it goes wrong
- The estimator feels checked on. Say upfront why you do this: it is about continuity, not about finding mistakes. Make the estimator the owner of the register.
- You write down exceptions instead of rules. Start with what happens often. Exceptions come later.
- The register gets outdated. Link it to the post-calculation. If a figure keeps being wrong, adjust it.
- You buy software first. An estimating module or AI tool only helps once the rules exist. Otherwise you automate a gut feeling.
6. And AI?
AI can help write up the interviews, or search old quotes for a similar order. The calculating itself you do with fixed rules, so everyone can trace how a price came about. A language model that invents a price can't be checked.
Want to see how a costing is built up per cost line? Read cost build-up of a quote in machine building.
Frequently asked questions
How many costing rules do you need?
That depends on the number of product types. Usually it is dozens rather than hundreds. Start with the cost lines that make up most of the price, often material and the largest operations, and add rules where the shadow estimate shows differences.
What if the estimator doesn't want to cooperate?
Explain why: it is about continuity and taking load off the estimator, not about control. Make them the owner of the register and the trainer of the second person. People who share their knowledge get called less during their holiday.
Does this have to go into the ERP?
Eventually yes, but not first. First the rules on paper, tested with a shadow estimate. Then you put them into the estimating module of your ERP or a fixed costing layout.
Can AI take over estimating?
Not reliably. AI can help with searching and summarising, but you must be able to recalculate a price. That only works with fixed costing rules and a build-up per cost line.
How long does it take?
Count on four to six weeks next to the daily work, for a company with one estimator and a few product types. Most of the time goes into the shadow estimates.
Sources
Other people's figures and statements on this page come from here. Calculation examples are fictional.
- KVK (Dutch Chamber of Commerce): Getting your business ready for sale Advice to transfer tasks and make the company less dependent on the owner (Dutch).
- KVK: Step-by-step plan for acquiring a business A buyer checks whether the seller's information is correct (Dutch).
About the author
Safouan Bolbaroud · Founder of Agentfabriek
At Agentfabriek, Safouan builds automations on top of the ERP systems of manufacturers and wholesalers. He writes about what needs to be in order before automation makes sense.